The race for governor had not even been officially declared for Andy Beshear on Tuesday night, and one political pundit on Kentucky Educational Television's election-night coverage was declaring re-elected Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles as the front-runner for the 2023 Republican nomination.
It's a logical name to throw out there, but is it the logical name?
The same week as the election may seem to be too early to start discussing who the Republicans should choose to take on Beshear in four years, but the reality is that the GOP needs to start thinking about this race now and begin working on its plan to unseat the new governor.
Much like the University of Kentucky's 2014-15 basketball season, the roster is loaded. (In all honesty, this year's slate was loaded as well, but Beshear played the role of Wisconsin.) All the statewide officers elected on Tuesday won by decisive margins, some against candidates with high name recognition and years of service, so it's a deep bench. Three of the officeholders will be term-limited and won't be able to seek re-election (the aforementioned Quarles, Auditor Mike Harmon, and Treasurer Allison Ball.) They'll possibly be looking to step up. Attorney General Daniel Cameron and Secretary of State Michael Adams will be in their first terms, and may choose to seek re-election than a move up at that point in their political careers.
All would definitely be formidable opponents for an incumbent Beshear. The three existing officeholders have done great jobs in their current positions. Ball led the ticket for the Republicans and has rejuvenated the duties of what is really a minor office. Harmon has done a methodical job as auditor, conducting himself in a bipartisan, impartial fashion. And Quarles has worked to modernize the state's agriculture industry, still a major economic engine, and is moving forward as hemp becomes a factor. Cameron and Adams are both attorneys. Cameron brings experience with Mitch McConnell, the leader of both the United States Senate and the state's rejuvenated Republican Party. Adams has experience working with other state executives in his role as an election lawyer.
Much depends on each individual's personal ambitions. Harmon and Quarles were both state legislators before moving into their executive elected positions. Ball is the mother of a young child and may prefer family time over the demands that the governorship would impose on her schedule.
Do any of these individuals stand out? Will they be jockeying amongst themselves for position at the top of the discussion list prior to the actual filing begins?
These are the first names that come to mind when you start talking about 2023 contenders, but they aren't the only ones. Rep. Jamie Comer lost the GOP primary to Bevin by only 83 votes in 2015, but found new political life when Ed Whitfield retired and Comer took his place as 1st District congressman. It seems that Comer has settled into his D.C. career, but sometimes it appears as if he never got over losing that race four years ago, and still has his eye on the governor's office.
None of the other members of the federal delegation would seem to be in the mix. All of them (Brett Guthrie, Thomas Massie, Hal Rogers, and Andy Barr) appear to be content with serving in Congress, and really have never looked to have designs on a Frankfort office during their tenures.
There may be some state legislators who are interested. Much as Rocky Adkins ran for the Democratic nomination this year, there might be a Republican who has their eyes on a bigger prize. It will be interesting to see if any outspoken leaders or fresh faces emerge as the General Assembly conducts business for the next few sessions. David Williams, when he was Senate president, sought to move up. There doesn't seem to be any indication that his successor, Robert Stivers, would be interested in following suit.
And, is there an unknown quantity out there? Another business person interested in stepping into politics? A Matt Bevin, a Wallace Wilkinson, a John Y. Brown, or even a Donald Trump? No one saw Bevin's rise to the governor's office coming, especially after his landslide loss to McConnell in the 2014 GOP Senate primary. Yet he pulled the upset in the primary, and then again in the general election.
Some may say it's too early to start looking toward 2023, but they're wrong. The time to start planning Beshear's defeat is now. There's a good team to choose from, and possibly some other players will emerge as we move forward. Keep an eye out for these political figures, and be on the lookout for an unknown, when campaigning starts for the next governor's race three years from now.
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