Some eyebrows were raised a couple of weeks ago when the name of Donald Trump, Jr., came up in discussions about who might be running for Kentucky governor in 2023.
One of the key combatants in the various legal battles against Gov. Andy Beshear and the state's executive orders regarding the Wuhan Chinese virus mentioned in an online discussion that he'd heard Trump's name brought up as a possible candidate. This person has his finger squarely on the pulse of Kentucky politics, and he'd be in a position to know the names of the players, the contenders, and the pretenders.
But there is absolutely no chance that the namesake son of the 45th president will be governor of Kentucky in two years. And unless Trump establishes residency in Kentucky by the end of this year, he can categorically be ruled out as a candidate in 2027.
Kentucky's constitution requires someone to be a resident of the state for six years before becoming eligible to run for or serve as governor. That means anyone planning on running in two years needed to be living here by 2017, thereby ruling Trump out.
This has to be a relief to any Republicans who were considering the race to be nominated to oppose Beshear. Trump would have brought money and a vast wealth of name recognition to the race, and judging from the amount of enthusiasm the mention of his name as a potential candidate generated, he would automatically have had the support of a majority of those who supported his father's presidential runs in 2016 and 2020.
So, where does that leave us when pondering the possible field of candidates? Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles seems to be getting the most attention as a potential candidate, even as criticism mounts against him as an establishment candidate. There's still considerable speculation that Kelly Craft will run, and talk of her possible candidacy became louder when she recently accompanied Congressman Hal Rogers on a tour of flood-ravaged communities in eastern Kentucky. Former Gov. Matt Bevin seems to be leaning toward another run, and he'd be a formidable foe because of the money he could bring to the race, plus the fact that he already has a statewide network in place from his previous term as governor. The "Draft Savannah Maddox" movement continues to gain steam, and it doesn't take a genius to suspect that she has to be paying them at least a modicum of attention. Some are mentioning Attorney General Daniel Cameron and Secretary of State Michael Adams as possible candidates, but they've given no indication they're interested in the race. And Congressman Jamie Comer continues to be the X-factor in the race. He really hasn't signaled an interest in running, but he hasn't ruled it out, either.
Meanwhile, on the other side, there's a bit of possible intrigue. There are some loud voices on the left who are encouraging Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman to mount a run against her boss. They point to the way she and her staff have handled Kentucky's unemployment fiasco and compare it to Beshear's treatment of the matter, and they use that to surmise that she'd be a better governor than he is. This isn't likely to happen, as no Democrat governor who's been eligible to succeed himself (Paul Patton and Steve Beshear) has faced credible, legitimate opposition for renomination in the primary. Unless...
An even more interesting rumor making the rounds is that Beshear is considering dropping Coleman from his re-election ticket in favor of Rocky Adkins, the former legislative leader who now serves as one of the governor's senior advisers. It's not clear from where this speculation is originating, but there's been no media coverage of it. Keep in mind, though, that it was rumored for months that Bevin would boot Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton from his slate with no replacement mentioned before Sen. Ralph Alvarado's name finally surfaced. Perhaps some inquisitive media sleuth should get Beshear on the record about this rumor. If Beshear did replace Coleman on his ticket, might she run against him as revenge?
Although some note has been paid to next year's U.S. senate race, when Rand Paul stands for re-election and is expected to face a challenge from former state Rep. Charles Booker, the 2023 governor's race continues to be the main political attention-grabber in the Commonwealth of Kentucky. The ongoing virus situation and the current governor's handling (or, if you ask many mishandling) of the matter continues to gain and hold the public's concern. State politics are infinitely more intriguing than are national politics, especially since there are more favors to be doled out on the state executive level than there are at the federal legislative level. So even as Paul continues to be a lightning rod for national attention due to his continuing scrutiny of Dr. Anthony Fauci, state political observers are going to be looking past next year to 2023.
The race will definitely be less interesting without the possibility of Donald Trump, Jr., in it, but it's still going to be a crowded and expensive GOP primary. There will be clear choices between establishment RINOs and conservative champions, with the possibility of several from each category in the race. It will be a spirited sprint to the nomination, but there will be races within the races. Will the establishment go for Quarles or Craft? Will the conservatives support Bevin or Maddox? Will someone surprise everyone the way Bevin did against Comer and Hal Heiner in 2015?
And keep an eye out for 2027 should Don Jr. move to the Bluegrass State this year.
