(Note: This column originally appeared in some Kentucky newspapers the week of July 27.)
Rand
Paul is somewhat of an enigma.
He’s
a favorite of many conservatives, yet he espouses positions that sound like
they’d be right at home in the platforms of Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.
He’s
seemingly changed his stance on so many issues that it’s hard to determine
where he stands on some of them, getting a reputation among some of his
detractors that he thrives on telling differing audiences exactly what they
want to hear.
He’s
tried to establish a bit of independence from his father, former congressman
and presidential candidate Ron Paul, yet he relies on his father’s network of
supporters and donors while at the same time trying to appeal to voters who
aren’t fans of his dad’s brand of politics.
As
one of the first announced presidential candidates, he spent some time at the
top of the polls, but he’s taken a back seat lately as candidates with broader
appeal (Scott Walker), establishment support (Jeb Bush) or a penchant for
bombastically speaking truths (Donald Trump) have entered the race.
And
he’s always asserted that being a Kentucky senator is his first priority, even
as he started plotting a run for president almost as soon as his improbable
election to the Senate in 2010 was certified.
It’s
that last bit that has some people wondering, since the announcement last week
that Paul will be skipping Kentucky’s most storied political event, the Fancy
Farm picnic so he can campaign for president in New Hampshire, just how
committed he is to defending his Senate seat.
That
Fancy Farm revelation has some political pundits and observers wondering just
how sincere Paul’s commitment to his re-election bid really is. Despite its
location in a remote corner of the Jackson Purchase area in far western
Kentucky, miles away from any major media markets, Fancy Farm is the “can’t
miss” shindig for Bluegrass State political figures. And with elections for
statewide offices on the ballot this year, there will be considerable interest
in this year’s festivities.
A
few weeks ago, I mentioned Paul’s push to have Kentucky Republicans switch from
a primary election to a caucus to allow him to get around Kentucky’s law that
would only allow him to run for one office at a time. The change to a caucus is
not a done deal. State GOP leaders will be deciding within the next few weeks
whether or not to move forward with that plan, and there is some opposition to
it. If the party does not approve a caucus, then Paul will definitely have to
decide whether he wants to pursue his presidential ambitions, or try to remain
Kentucky’s junior senator.
Some
are beginning to wonder if Paul’s inattention to his re-election efforts might
allow a well-funded and aggressive Democrat to sneak in and claim the seat.
Although no Democrat has yet announced an intention to run yet, several names
have been floated. The Democrats have always prized having the controls of
state government more than federal offices, though, so it’s most likely that
any of them who are thinking of running next year will wait until after
November’s elections to announce.
And it’s further possible that the likely candidates are running for
statewide office this year (Alison Lundergan Grimes and Adam Edelen being two
of the most oft-mentioned.)
Mitch
McConnell still has a tenuous hold on control of the state GOP, despite a
number of well-publicized stumbles in the last few years. One of his staffers
was recently named executive director of the Republican Party of Kentucky.
McConnell and Paul have a well-documented relationship that has always been a
bit contentious. McConnell supported Trey Grayson over Paul in the 2010 GOP
senatorial primary, but came on board for the general election. McConnell has
voiced his support for Paul’s presidential aspirations, but no doubt his
loyalties lie with Bush or another establishment candidate, as their views mesh
better with McConnell’s than do Paul’s. McConnell has also thrown his support
behind the idea of a presidential caucus, but given the fickle nature of
McConnell’s loyalties, that could change. (Don’t believe me about that? Ask
former Gov. Ernie Fletcher about that subject. Or former U.S. Sen. Jim
Bunning.) McConnell and Paul recently had a well-publicized spat over
surveillance issues that got a lot of attention nationally.
The
next few weeks will be critical to Paul’s presidential campaign. They may also
prove critical to his senatorial re-election bid. He may be forced, via one
reason or another, to choose between them. How it all turns out will be as
interesting to Kentucky political observers as the Donald Trump phenomenon now
is on the national scene.
