After the Republican Party
of Kentucky announced its plan to hold a presidential nominating caucus, rather
than a primary, to enable U.S. Sen. Rand Paul to run for re-election and for
the presidency at the same time, there was always an undercurrent of thought
that Paul wouldn’t even be in the running by the time his made-to-order caucus
took place.
I hope those who predicted
that outcome placed winning bets on the Super Bowl, because they were right on
the money. Two days after the Iowa caucuses, Paul dropped out of the
presidential race.
That leaves Kentucky
Republicans with a Saturday, March 5 presidential caucus that was designed to
benefit only one person who now won’t benefit from it at all. Paul’s name will
still be on the caucus ballot, but a vote for him will be wasted.
The odds were good that Paul
wouldn’t have won the Kentucky caucus. Although he touts his attendance record
as proof that he’s working for Kentucky in the Senate, there are a lot of
people in both parties who think Paul has furthered his own personal political
ambitions during his Senate term and hasn’t acted in Kentucky’s best interests.
At the time of this writing, no polling has been released about Republican
voters’ preferences, but it’s safe to say that Paul wouldn’t be leading if
polls had been taken. Excitement for Donald Trump in Kentucky seems to be on
par with the rest of the country, and both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio seem to
have generated enthusiastic followers in the Bluegrass State as well.
So, Paul’s departure from
the race leaves Kentucky Republicans with a caucus that the party leadership
never really supported, but approved as a favor to him. How do they feel now?
Will they be inclined to grant him any more favors?
Some Republicans are still
promoting the caucus as a good thing, saying it will make Kentucky relevant in
the nominating process since the nominee has traditionally been all but chosen
by the time of the normal May primary. But turnout for the Saturday caucus will
likely be abysmal. In fact, not all counties are hosting a caucus. Republicans
in nine of Kentucky’s counties will have to travel to another county to cast a
vote, and there’s a rather egregious example of that in this region.
Owsley County chose not to
have a caucus. Republicans there who wish to participate will have to travel to
Lee County to vote. It’s only 11 miles from Booneville to Beattyville, but it
will still be an inconvenience for Owsley residents who live in the far reaches
of the county to drive to Beattyville. But the worst example is Estill County.
Estill residents will have to travel the 27 long, torturous miles to McKee
across a narrow, winding and hilly road to vote. Instead of combining with
Madison or Powell counties, which are much closer and easier to access, Estill
County instead will be caucusing with Jackson County. That makes little sense.
Absentee ballots are also an
option, but the realistic view is that unless Republicans, especially those in
counties not holding caucuses, are very fired up about a certain candidate,
they’ll choose not to participate. The low turnout will be reminiscent of
Kentucky’s 1988 participation in the “Super Tuesday” presidential primary, and
the 2016 caucus will go down in history as a failed experiment that was of no
help to the one person it was designed to benefit.
Paul’s campaign agreed to
pay most of the costs of the caucuses, with candidate filing fees expected to
take up the slack. Will he hold up his end of the bargain, or will the RPK be
stuck with the bills? As this is written, no prominent Kentucky Republicans or
party leaders have commented on the status of the caucus or on Paul’s
withdrawal from the presidential race.
Some Republicans were
concerned that Paul’s faltering presidential bid would negatively affect his
Senate re-election campaign. Paul got a high-profile Democratic opponent last
week in Lexington Mayor Jim Gray. Paul’s exit from the presidential race before
the Kentucky caucus makes one wonder if perhaps his camp doesn’t regard Gray as
more of a threat than they let on.
To date, Paul has not
endorsed a candidate. Rick Santorum, who finished second to Mitt Romney in 2012
but failed to gain traction this time around, also withdrew from the race last
week and endorsed Rubio. If Paul does endorse an ex-rival, we’ll have to see if
that provides a bump for that candidate in Kentucky.
After the caucus was
created at the insistence of Kentucky’s junior senator, I dubbed it the
“GOPaulcus.” Now, the guest of honor at that party won’t even be in attendance.
Bluegrass Republicans have to be a little embarrassed about that. And if some
of them are angry, that’s justifiable, too.
