I had intended to use this space for a cursory
analysis of the Kentucky statewide elections, which saw Republicans take the
governor’s race for only the second time in the last four decades, and then
offer a few ideas for Gov.-elect Matt Bevin’s administration as he moves
forward.
But when I saw the completely off-the-wall
conspiracy theory, posted on a couple of lunatic left-wing websites, that Bevin
won only through massive voter fraud, I had to laugh.
Kentucky politics aren’t well-understood by
outsiders. I’ve had many conversations with people who think the Bluegrass
State is dominated by Republicans since the state has of late tended to vote
for GOP candidates in federal elections. Out-of-staters don’t understand what a
grip the Democrats have held on state government and many local governments as
well. Twice last week I heard Bevin say on national radio shows that 72 percent
of elected officials in Kentucky are Democrats, and despite gains in voter
registration numbers, fewer than 40 percent of the state’s electorate checked
the “R” box on their registration form.
Sadly, even some Kentuckians have bought into the
election fraud theory. When someone posted a petition on change.org, demanding
a federal investigation into the gubernatorial election results, a number of
Kentuckians echoed that sentiment. They must not have been paying attention to
what had been going on in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 3 election, or
they’d be ashamed of their silliness.
Those who are alleging election fraud point to
two main facts. First is that the election results were misaligned with polls
that indicated Bevin would lose to Jack Conway. Those same polls got last
year’s U.S. Senate race between Mitch McConnell and Alison Lundergan Grimes
wrong as well. They tend to oversample Democrats, and the media outlets that
commission the Bluegrass State Poll have made it known they’ll use another
pollster in future years.
The second bit of “proof” that the election was
tampered with, they claim, is that down-ballot candidates got more votes than
did Conway, who topped his party’s ticket. They say this is unusual. In fact,
it’s not unusual at all. In the last two gubernatorial elections proceeding
this year’s, the Republican candidate for agriculture commissioner (Richie
Farmer in 2007 and Jamie Comer in 2011) far outpaced the Democratic
gubernatorial nominee. And the two Democrats who did win statewide elections
have well-known fathers. Andy Beshear is the son of sitting governor Steve
Beshear. And Alison Lundergan Grimes is the daughter of longtime party
operative and former Democrat chairman Jerry Lundergan. The names Beshear and
Lundergan carry a lot of weight in “D” circles in Kentucky, and both candidates
had a great deal of name recognition. Even though Steve Beshear and Jerry
Lundergan don’t like each other very much, they are the leaders of the state’s
Democrats, so it’s natural that support would flow to their children.
To further display their cluelessness, the
conspiracy theorists said the election had been rigged by GOP insiders. What
more proof does one need than that statement that they have no clue what
happened? As secretary of state, Grimes is in charge of elections in Kentucky.
It’s highly unlikely that she would allow Republicans to steal a race. And
Bevin was not exactly the darling of the Republican establishment in Kentucky.
He beat Comer, the establishment’s preferred candidate, in the primary; but
more importantly, he dared to challenge Mitch McConnell in last year’s U.S.
Senate primary. He ran a doggedly independent race against Conway, and some
observers even speculated that the party’s hierarchy wasn’t 100 percent in
support of him because they felt if he won, it would make “flipping” the House
of Representatives to a Republican majority that much harder.
Why, then, did Bevin surprise the pollsters and
sweep to victory and leave liberals scrambling to invent out-in-left-field
reasons for the result? Lots of pundits have put forth their theories, but
there’s a simple explanation that sums it up. In short, Bevin outworked Conway.
Anytime there was a candidate forum, a public gathering, a small town festival
or parade or other event, it seemed Bevin was there, and Conway wasn’t. Bevin
went out and connected with the people of Kentucky. Conway ignored advice from
his own party that he needed to be a better retail politician. While Conway
spent time with rich donors who didn’t need to be convinced to vote for him,
Bevin went straight to the people. Bevin ran a great campaign and Conway was
terrible.
Of course, issues played a role. Obamacare,
religious freedom and support of Kentucky’s coal industry were key. So were
taxes, jobs and education. In numbers greater than anyone expected, the voters
who did turn out decided overwhelmingly that the party that’s controlled
Kentucky for decades has done a poor job, and gave the reins to someone else.
So shortly after midnight on Dec. 8, Matt Bevin
will take the oath of office as governor of the Commonwealth of Kentucky. He’ll
have to plunge immediately into the dual tasks of setting up his administration
and preparing for a legislative session. Make no mistake: He earned this
opportunity, and this responsibility, honorably and honestly. Nothing fishy
happened here, despite what some leftists who are distant from Kentucky and
disconnected from reality might have you believe.
