RINOs on the rampage and COINs aplenty

Rhinos may be an endangered species, but RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) are multiplying at record rates.

There may have been a coin shortage last year during the height of the Wuhan Chinese virus pandemic, but there's definitely no shortage of COINs (Conservatives Only In Name).

At a time when the Republican Party's grassroots is staying true to and standing firm on conservative principles, the party's establishment moves more and more to the left. The party's core voters and activists grow angrier by the day as they watch this shift and the betrayal of their values.

Indeed, for a short period earlier this year, I changed my registration from the Republican Party to the Constitution Party, mostly out of anger with Mitch McConnell for his failure to stand strong for conservative ideals and against the Democrats. McConnell is the classic RINO. He embraces the big-government policies of the left and has opposed both the tea party conservative and Donald Trump populist movements within the GOP; the movements that have fueled the party's meteoric rise in Kentucky to the point where Republicans are about to overtake Democrats in voter registration, something that was unthinkable even a decade ago. But I ended up changing back so I could have a say in choosing GOP nominees during the primary election process.

Republicans are supposed to be the party of smaller government, lower taxes, and individual rights. But you wouldn't know it from the way many Kentucky Republican officials conduct themselves, no doubt inspired by their leader McConnell.

Constitutional lawyer, best-selling author, and conservative radio and television host Mark Levin calls these charlatans "Repubicans" and he's definitely on-target where many Bluegrass GOPers are concerned.

Kentucky Republican legislators and other elected officials continue to beat the drum for a gasoline tax increase. The new General Assembly majority inflicted Kentuckians with a sales tax on services such as auto repairs and veterinary services a few years ago. They turned down a chance to impeach Gov. Andy Beshear and remove him from office earlier this  year despite his blatant violations of the United States Constitution. (Remember that Beshear has lost every federal court case brought against him over the constitutionality of his Kung Flu mandates).

And now into the fray comes Tres Watson, former communications director for the Republican Party of Kentucky and still someone who moves in the upper echelon of the GOP establishment.

Via his Twitter account, earlier this week Watson declared his support for forcing all public employees to take the Kung Flu vaccine.

You read that right. A bigwig in the party that purports to champion individual freedoms and liberties is advocating that those liberties be taken away from a certain segment of the population. That's a pretty liberal position to take. With Republicans like these, who needs Democrats? You'd  expect Beshear or Dementia Joe Biden or Andrew Cuomo to push forced vaccinations. Not a prominent Republican.

Truth be told, Republicans are often the lesser of two evils. There's nothing really conservative about Kentucky's legislative leaders. During the past two General Assembly sessions, with the specter of Kung Flu hanging over the chambers, they failed to promote legislation that would have preserved individual freedoms and limit action by government executives to restrict those liberties.

And then there's the whiff the impeachment committee, dominated by Republicans, took earlier this year. One committee member basically admitted that Beshear had committed impeachable offenses, but they didn't think it appropriate to remove him from office since he was put there through the will of the electorate.

Is it any wonder that the grassroots activists and voters want to pull their hair out when the party leaders acquiesce to liberals and don't stand strong?

It's definitely not a Kentucky phenomenon. RINOs are running rampant at the national level, and COINs are plentiful. From Rep. Liz Cheney to noted and once-respected pundit Bill Kristol to the frauds at the Lincoln Project, there's a significant wing of the GOP who would rather side with liberals than stand true to their values and principles.

When we finally get Republicans with a backbone who will stand up to the left, these pretend conservatives undercut them at every opportunity. Matt Bevin had already angered the Kentucky establishment when he dared to challenge McConnell in the 2014 Senate race, so he had to battle opposition from within the party as well as the Democrats during his term as governor. And we're all painfully aware of how Donald Trump, the consummate outsider, was treated by the GOP bigwigs because he pushed back against the status quo and the "go along to get along" mentality.

It's hard for the party's base to make the claim that the GOP stands for certain things when the party's leaders and elected officials act differently. Can we legitimately claim we're against higher taxes when our legislature raises them? How can we say we support individual freedoms when influential voices advocate forced vaccinations?

There's a severe disconnect between the party's rank and file voters, and those who are in elected positions or within the party's hierarchy. At some point, this is going to cause problems. The Democrats are horribly bad, but in too many cases, Republicans aren't much better. It doesn't give the grassroots activists the warm fuzzies to see folks like Tres Watson pushing positions that would seem more at home coming out of Andy Beshear's mouth. Indeed, Beshear has been so focused on playing politics while claiming he's not playing politics, that let's hope he doesn't get any bad ideas from a Republican Party mouthpiece like Watson.

The Mitch McConnell Building that houses the RPK headquarters in downtown Frankfort should be designated as a RINO sanctuary and a COIN museum.

And they're off: Harmon's entry into 2023 gubernatorial race is just the beginning

The announcement that Mike Harmon plans to run for Kentucky governor in 2023 wasn't really a surprise, but the timing caught most Bluegrass political observers off-guard.

Harmon, who's in his second term as state auditor and cannot run again due to Kentucky's term limits on statewide offices, had been widely mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate. But no one anticipated him being the first to announce his candidacy, which was done via a press release instead of a live event.

The low-key nature of Harmon's declaration is in keeping with his performance as auditor. He hasn't been a headline-grabber. He's brought a quiet, methodical approach to his duties, seizing on a slogan of "Follow the Data" as his office goes about its mandated functions.

As of this writing, his early announcement hasn't moved any of the other possible or rumored candidates to publicly say they're in the running for the Republican nomination to try to unseat Andy Beshear in two years. Whether his official announcement will be of any benefit to him, or possibly ward off other potential challengers, remains to be seen. He's already picked up some early public support from some voters who probably would have looked at other alternatives if he wasn't running.

The most frequently mentioned possible candidates include former Gov. Matt Bevin, current Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, Congressman Jamie Comer, and Kelly Knight Craft, former U.S. ambassador to Canada.

There are a number of other potential candidates, including Treasurer Allison Ball, who, like Harmon and Quarles, is term-limited from seeking re-election. Even Congressman Andy Barr, who once served as an aide to former Gov. Ernie Fletcher, has been mentioned in some news stories as considering joining the race. Somerset Mayor Alan Keck has expressed some interest in running. And without giving away any inside information, it can be accurately stated that state Rep. Savannah Maddox has heard the voices encouraging her to run.

Although we don't know exactly who all will be running for the GOP nomination in 2023, save for Harmon, it can safely be predicted that the ballot will be crowded and the race will be expensive. There's no clear front-runner among speculative candidates, although press coverage would give one the impression that Quarles occupies that spot.

This much is certain: Beshear is deeply unpopular among Kentucky Republicans for the way he's handled the Wuhan Chinese virus and a number of other related and unrelated issues. But how will that unpopularity affect the GOP electorate? There's a clear divide among establishment Republicans (the RINOs) and the conservative grassroots (the tea party and MAGA groups.)

Of the possible candidates, Craft would definitely be an establishment favorite. Many consider Quarles to fit in that category as well. Some place Comer in that group, too, and to a lesser extent, Barr.

On the conservative side? Bevin, Maddox, and Ball are definitely on that team.

As for Harmon (who was introduced as "Mark Harmon," the NCIS actor, by President Trump at the Rupp Arena 2019 election eve rally), it's hard to tell where he belongs. He's more or less avoided a lot of ideological statements or acts during his tenure as auditor. He certainly hasn't been as outspoken in his opposition to Beshear policies and orders as either Quarles or Ball.

The Kentucky GOP electorate is angry. They're upset with Beshear and his business- and job-killing restrictions. They're unhappy with the way the Republican establishment, led by the likes of Mitch McConnell and Liz Cheney, have turned on Trump. Some of that anger will play out at the polls next year, when all of the state representatives and half of the state senate seats are up for election. Expect a number of incumbent Republicans to be primaried, especially if their politics have drifted to the left over the years. A perfect example is Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr, who's drawn a primary challenge from Lexington business owner and conservative activist Andrew Cooperrider.

Will establishment support carry a Quarles or a Craft to victory? Would a perception as McConnell's choice be a blessing or a curse? In past years, it was an asset. Now, not so much. A scant few years ago, it would have been unthinkable for a county party committee to issue a formal censure of the party's top statewide elected official with a position of national prominence. McConnell is said to be smarting over the defiance that was shown by several county GOP organizations. His support -- tacit or vocal -- of one of the Republican candidates might be the kiss of death for their chances.

Harmon, and the other candidates who come out for the race, will be running under a new set of rules. No longer will primary voters have to choose slates of candidates for governor and lieutenant governor. Gubernatorial candidates will run solo in the primary, and the winner will choose their running mate after being nominated and before the general election.

It's a rule Dan Mongiardo probably wishes had been in place for the 2011 election. Mongiardo was elected lieutenant governor on a slate with Steve Beshear in 2007, but it was widely known that Mongiardo was eyeing the 2010 Senate race for a rematch with Jim Bunning. Beshear wanted to get an early start on fundraising for his re-election campaign, so he had to have a slate in place and he had no way of knowing if Mongiardo would still be lieutenant governor, or if he would be in the U.S. Senate, so he dropped Mongiardo from the ticket in favor of Jerry Abramson.

So, Harmon's formal filing makes him the first candidate to be able to raise funds for the 2023 campaign. It really hasn't garnered him a lot of "earned media" press coverage other than for his announcement. It's also gotten him some proclamations of support from some voters, but no early endorsements to speak of.

Harmon's a qualified candidate, and has done a credible job as auditor, but is he the person best suited to carry the fight to Andy Beshear in two years? Will he inspire the passion that some other candidates will? Can he stay in the race until May 2023, or as the field grows, will he find support lagging and have to pull out and endorse someone else?

We all expected a drama-filled Republican primary race, but this wasn't the first act we anticipated at all.

Charles Booker's fool's errand

Ever since former state Rep. Charles Booker of Louisville lost his bid last year to be the latest Democrat to try and fail to unseat Mitch McConnell from the United States Senate, he's teased a potential run against Rand Paul for the junior senator's seat next year.

Today, Booker looked reality in the eye and pretended it doesn't exist. In the political equivalent of driving a fully loaded coal truck across a bridge marked with a three-ton weight limit, Booker embarked on his fool's errand to try to defeat Paul. It's a contest he has no chance of winning. If he is the Democrats' nominee for the Senate race next year, his loss to Paul will make Amy McGrath's defeat at the hands of McConnell look like a razor-thin margin.

McConnell didn't cruise to victory over McGrath last year because he's popular in Kentucky. Most Republicans merely tolerate McConnell, and many despise him. He won because Donald Trump had long coattails, and because the electorate was suffering voter fatigue from McGrath. She had just come off a loss in a congressional race where her television ads were omnipresent in a large area of Kentucky, and people were sick of hearing about her. "How many missions did she fly?" was a question often derisively asked because McGrath had harped on her record as a fighter pilot during her campaign loss to Rep. Andy Barr.

On the other hand, Paul is immensely popular with Kentucky Republicans, and he's cemented that popularity over the last year and a half. He's been a consistent voice for freedom, and withering in his criticisms of Gov. Andy Beshear and Dr. Anthony Fauci for the way they've responded to the Wuhan Chinese virus outbreak. He's even earning the respect of conservatives who had previously been skeptical of some of his more liberal-leaning libertarian views. If you polled Kentucky Republicans to ask their favorite Bluegrass politician or official, Paul would win easily. McConnell, who routed McGrath last year to win re-election, would finish behind several obscure state representatives.

And that brings us to voting patterns and party registration numbers. When I was growing up, Democrats had a lock on Kentucky politics. Republicans would occasionally win a Senate race, but they were a distinct statewide minority. Democrats held an advantage in registered voters of more than 2:1. Republicans outnumbered them only in the "old 5th" congressional district of south-central Kentucky.

Slowly but surely, voting numbers changed. McConnell defeated incumbent Dee Huddleston in 1984. Bill Clinton won Kentucky twice, but Al Gore from neighboring Tennessee did not. Republicans took Wendell Ford's old Senate seat when he retired. After a 32-year drought, a GOP governor was elected in 2003, along with two other statewide officials. The trend has continued over the past 18 years, with Republicans picking up a majority of the state's congressional seats and winning supermajorities in both chambers of the General Assembly despite those districts having been drawn by Democrats to provide their candidates advantages.

The state has trended more conservative in election results and attitudes, and voter registration numbers are finally catching up. The state Republican Party tracks the statistics, and they're mind-boggling. Since Barack Obama took office in 2009, Democrats have hemorrhaged registered voters while the GOP has racked up incredible gains. Not only are voters switching parties, but new voters are registering as Republicans. Trump's election brought a surge of new voters to the Republicans, as did Beshear's election.

That 2:1 advantage the Democrats held in my youth is gone. Republicans are now within two percentage points of taking the lead in registered voters. It's entirely possible that by the 2024 presidential election, the Republicans will have a majority of party registrations and Kentucy will truly become a red state. The numbers don't lie, and here they are:

So, this is the political environment into which Charles Booker enters. At a time when Kentucky is moving more to the right, the most liberal politician in the state thinks he can unseat a conservative hero. There's even talk that Booker is too liberal for Kentucky Democrats. So far, he's drawn no credible opposition. Ruth Gao, an unknown from Louisville, declared her candidacy first, but she is an unknown and doesn't have Booker's advantages of having used his run against McGrath last year to develop a statewide following. No other Democrats are even being mentioned as possible candidates.

If Booker wants to be realistic about his political future, a more appropriate race for him would be mayor of Louisville. His radical liberal politics are more in line with Jefferson County, and a significant portion of the electorate there, than they are the rest of the state. Booker's race-baiting, which he's doubled down on the past year, coupled with many of his extreme liberal policies, simply won't play in rural and small-town Kentucky except with the small pockets of ultra-leftists that are present in even the most conservative places.

Despite his unpopularity, McConnell embarrassed McGrath last year. Despite the left's wet dreams that Booker would have fared better, the truth is McConnell would have beaten him worse than he did McGrath. His defeat at the hands of Paul will be legendary.

Democrats really have no chance of unseating Paul next year. The incumbent has already been endorsed by Trump, who remains extremely popular in the Bluegrass State. Party leaders would be well-served to try to find a candidate who will fare better than Booker so at least they will be able to maintain some small amount of pride; to try to keep the margin of defeat respectable.