It's no secret that Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has a toxic relationship with the Kentucky General Assembly. Beshear is the only Democrat of any prominence in state government, as all other statewide offices are held by Republicans, and both chambers of the legislature are overwhelmingly Republican, so it's in his best interests to try to work with the GOP. Instead, he's chosen the opposite route. He's been combative and uncooperative. Over the past two years, as the governor has made executive decisions impacting the lives and livelihoods of all Kentuckians, he's gone at it alone. He's failed to try to seek common ground with legislative leaders, or to even give them a heads-up as to what he's going to announce, as he's taken a wrecking ball to the state's economy and many of its small businesses under the flag of keeping us safe.
Whether it's arrogance, envy, stubbornness, or some other unknown and unseen reason, the governor has been absolutely unwilling to work with the majority to find common ground on policy issues. Yes, the governor is largely irrelevant, because if he vetoes anything the House and Senate pass decisively, the veto will be overridden. But he's still the top executive in the state and he needs to face political reality and deal with it.
One of his most recent fits of pique, however, may come back to bite him harder than anything else, given the state's current political mood.
The General Assembly is required to do only two things in its current session, which began last month and will last for 60 working days. The first task is to write a biennial budget. The second chore is to draw new federal and state legislative district boundaries using data from the 2020 Census. The two may be related this year, as you'll see later.
Because budget discussions usually dominate the biennial 60-day legislative sessions, General Assembly leaders hoped to have the new district boundaries in place prior to the start of the session. They asked Beshear to call a special legislative session late last year, but he declined. For reasons known only to him, he wanted to see the maps that legislative leaders had drawn up before he brought the General Assembly back into session.
There was no reason for the governor to see the maps prior to a special session. Legislative redistricting is the purview of the legislature in Kentucky. Yes, the governor can veto the redistricting bills, but that veto would have been moot because the GOP holds veto-proof majorities in both chambers. This year is the first time that Republicans have had complete control over the redistricting process. The chambers draw their own boundaries and the other chamber usually approves them as a formality, and they come to an agreement on federal congressional lines. For the past two redistrictings, Republicans held the Senate and Democrats controlled the House. In fact, the switch in control of the House came in districts the Democrats had drawn in 2012 in an attempt to protect their dwindling majority. This time, the GOP had unfettered access to setting the district lines.
So, because the governor refused to call a special session to get the new legislative districts in place prior to the start of the regular session, redistricting became the first order of business.
Two years ago, the legislature moved the filing deadline for the May primary election up from late January to the first week of January. That meant that the new district boundaries wouldn't be in place by this year's Jan. 7 deadline. So the legislature moved this year's deadline back to later in the month to allow candidates to know in which district they lived and where they were eligible to file.
Beshear vetoed the Kentucky House and federal congressional district maps, and let the Senate map become law without his signature. As expected, the legislature overrode his vetoes and the new districts became law, along with the extended filing deadline.
So far, no problems, right? Beshear knew he couldn't win the battle, but he prolonged it as long as he could. First, he didn't call a special session to allow the legislature to get the redistricting out of the way. Then, he vetoed two of the bills.
But the fight's not over. A group of Democrats sued in state court to block implementation of the state and federal House districts. To date, no challenge has been filed to the Senate district map, nor has a federal suit been filed. Both are still possible. So far, there's been no movement in the state court case.
The Republicans have made provisions for an extended court battle. The legislature is proposing that the primary election, this year only, be moved from May to August, with an accompanying extension of the filing deadline, should the legal fight drag on.
How might this come back to bite Beshear? And how does the redistricting brouhaha tie in to the budgetary process? They're related.
Conservatives in Kentucky are unhappy with the Republican establishment leadership in the General Assembly. They're angry that the House didn't move to impeach Beshear last year over his repeated federal constitutional violations. They're upset that legislation to end the Wuhan Chinese virus "emergency" declaration didn't go far enough. They're displeased that legislation to prohibit Kung Flu vaccination requirements as a basis for employment failed to move during last year's special session and hasn't even been assigned to a committee in the current session. A number of House Republicans who didn't act with enough vigor have drawn challengers for this year's primary. The possible delay in the primary and an extension of the filing date may bring more opposition.
In most 60-day biennial sessions, action on the budget usually comes very late in the calendar, often in the last days. This year is different. The House has already approved its budget, with the stated goal of moving on to tax reform now that the budget's out of the way. This ought to scare the dickens out of every Kentuckian. The last time the GOP-controlled General Assembly addressed tax reform, we got a broad expansion of the sales tax to cover services such as auto repairs and veterinarian fees. Both conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats were opposed to that move, but it didn't matter. It's also widely expected that another gas tax increase, similar to ones that have been proposed in past sessions, will be brought up again. At a time when fuel prices are surging to levels not seen in nearly a decade, that's a burden Kentuckians can't afford.
So how does all of this tie together? Republicans may think the primary field is already set, and they can levy new taxes and increase existing ones with impunity, but if the state redistricting court case isn't decided soon -- it's likely that it will end up at the Kentucky Supreme Court -- or if it goes to federal court or if new challenges are filed, the window will be open once again for challengers to less-than-conservative Republicans. Those same GOP challengers will be even more hostile to Andy Beshear. If the GOP legislators currently serving open themselves up to potentially more challengers, a number of them could end up losing their seats to Republicans who not only will hold the line on new taxes, but will go after Beshear anew. He could even end up being impeached, this time by an effort led by House members instead of private citizens.
Beshear may have been better off just calling a special session last fall. That would have given any potential court challenges more time to play out and would have put a rest to any possibility of an extended filing period. Instead, he's opened the door to even more resistance from the legislature by making it possible that Republicans angry at the establishment will take power. He would have no chance to have any of his initiatives considered and would face an even more hostile General Assembly in 2023 as he enters his re-election year. Through his own hubris in not working with the legislature to get new district boundaries in place in a timely fashion, he may have done himself even more damage, and emboldened Kentucky conservatives who are already restless from how they're being ignored by their party's leadership.
