Odd. Unusual. Weird. Quiet. Strange.
Those adjectives pretty much sum up the consensus
of political analysts concerning next week’s gubernatorial election in
Kentucky. In a state where some past races have provided Fourth-of-July-type
fireworks for political junkies, this year’s contest seems to have resulted in
a collective “yawn” from the Bluegrass State’s electorate.
Even some columnists who routinely comment on
such things have sought out other subjects on which to opine, even as Election
Day draws nearer.
Want evidence that it’s a different kind of
election? Democrats are complaining that their candidate, Jack Conway, is
spending too much time raising money and not enough time campaigning. And
Republicans aren’t happy that their nominee, Matt Bevin, is concentrating on
campaigning instead of raising money.
What’s causing this feeling? There’s a widespread
perception that neither party is particularly happy with its candidate. Bevin’s
story is well-known. He scored an upset victory over the favorite and preferred
candidate of the party’s hierarchy, Jamie Comer, and the opponent who was
considered to be Comer’s strongest challenger, Hal Heiner. When Comer and
Heiner began discussing each other instead of the issues, Bevin slipped through
the middle and claimed his surprising win.
Bevin’s not in favor with the state GOP’s
leadership and establishment because of his primary challenge last year to U.S.
Sen. Mitch McConnell. Some of McConnell’s surrogates have been indifferent or
downright hostile to Bevin in their public pronouncements about the race.
There’s also a theory floating around out there that the state party’s real
priority is to take control of the state House of Representatives in next
year’s elections, and having a Democrat as governor would be more conducive to
that goal. There’s sentiment that having a Republican governor will be
beneficial to Democratic House candidates, so it makes things easier to offer
only tepid support to a GOP gubernatorial candidate who isn’t well-liked by the
party’s movers and shakers.
The traditional primary election roles were
flip-flopped this year. Democrats usually have dog-eat-dog gubernatorial
primary races. While Republicans had a crowded field and a spirited race,
Conway had an easy walk to the fall. He faced only token opposition in the
primary, and neither his positions on the issues nor his bank account were
challenged. A number of other prominent Democrats were rumored to be
considering running, or were encouraged to get in the race, but none opted to
run. Names like Lt. Gov. Crit Luallen, Auditor Adam Edelen, Secretary of State
Alison Lundergan Grimes, former Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, House Speaker Greg
Stumbo, and others were floated, but in the end, none stepped forward to
challenge Conway. That’s what makes the lukewarm interest in Conway’s candidacy
even more puzzling. There were plenty of opportunities for other Democrats to
seek the nomination, but they all passed.
No one’s really expressed a theory as to why this
happened, but I have one. Shortly before his death this spring, before the
primary, former U.S. Sen. and Kentucky Gov. Wendell Ford endorsed Conway. Ford
was the elder statesman for Kentucky Democrats. I think it’s entirely possible
that the other politicians held off on running out of deference and respect for
Ford’s memory.
The biggest question about next Tuesday’s race is
if independent Drew Curtis will have any impact on the race. There’s no chance
that Curtis can win, but he could play spoiler, drawing votes from one of the
two partisan candidates. If he hurts one of them, would Bevin or Conway suffer
the most?
One thing’s certain. For the first time in modern
history, Kentucky will have a governor who hails from Louisville. This has some
of Kentucky’s rural interests concerned. There’s a frequently heard refrain
that state government neglects Louisville – an incorrect view, in my opinion –
and there’s some worry that the new administration will favor Jefferson County
over the rest of the state. Since much of the legislative leadership hails from
rural areas, that may not be as much of a factor as some want to believe.
Something else to consider is the possibility
that voters are turned off by the negativity of some of the campaign
commercials. A couple of the candidates and the groups that support them must
not have anything positive to say about themselves. Most all of their ads are
critical of their opponents instead of listing their own qualifications and
ideas.
What news coverage there has been of the election
has been very favorable to Conway. The press has been highly critical of Bevin,
most recently when he got Medicaid and Medicare confused. That’s easily done;
in fact, I do it frequently. But there’s been scant mention of Conway’s
interference with the investigation of his brother on drug charges, or the
recent revelation that his family has been involved in his sister’s messy
divorce and the subsequent jailing of her husband.
Of the downticket races, the one that’s gotten
the most attention is the attorney general’s race. Andy Beshear is running on
his father’s name, and tapping into the massive pile of donor money that a
sitting governor commands, yet still hasn’t pulled away from his young opponent,
Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Whitney Westerfield, in the polling. In
fact, the most recent polls available as of this writing indicate that all of
the statewide races are too close to call.
You might think the closeness of the races,
coupled with the very real possibility that the Republicans could take a
majority of the statewide offices for the first time in anyone’s memory, would
result in a lot of attention and discussion. But that hasn’t been the
case. It’s possible that the early
jockeying for position in next year’s presidential race has stolen some of the
interest, but most of the pundits are attributing the quietness to what they
perceive as flawed candidates.
Regardless, there are distinct contrasts between
Matt Bevin and Jack Conway. They have very different backgrounds and vastly
different visions of where they want to take the state. The issues facing
Kentucky are too important to ignore. Our state faces a challenging time the
next four years and beyond. If you want to make a difference and have a say in
what happens, go vote on Nov. 3 for the candidate of your choice.
