Tuesday's gubernatorial election in Virginia, in which Republican political newcomer Glenn Youngkin defeated his venerable Democrat challenger, Terry McAuliffe, has sent shockwaves through the country.
Youngkin's win in a state that had been trending "blue" for several years, has alarmed liberals who are now very worried about next year's midterm elections, in which President Biden's policies and accomplishments will be on the ballot in every contested Senate and House race. With the effect's of Biden's initiatives on full display -- supply chain issues, runaway inflation with the promise of even more price hikes to come, the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan -- part of the Virginia governor's race was indeed a national referendum.
But the main issue was a local one, and the primary lesson that can be learned from that can be applied to neighboring Kentucky as candidates already position themselves for the 2023 gubernatorial election here.
It's widely thought that McAuliffe torpedoed his own candidacy by some of his own words and deeds. Remember, he basically said that parents have no role in educational policy. His supporters and defenders claim that his remarks were taken out of context, but that's just willful ignorance on their part. He said what he said, and it's on the record and the context is clear.
McAuliffe brought in his party's big guns to campaign for him, including Biden and his ideological predecessor, Barack Obama, as well as the reigning champion of election-outcome whining, Stacey Abrams, and Vice President Kamala Harris. But it was all to no avail. Areas that had supported Biden last year and Ralph Northam four years ago reversed course. Virginians also elected a black female, Winsome Sears, as their lieutenant governor. Sears is a naturalized citizen and therefore isn't eligible for the presidency, but she is a true rising star in the Republican Party, with an inspirational story. Republicans like Sears, Tim Scott, Allen West, and Kentucky's Daniel Cameron terrify the liberal race-baiters who seek to use pigmentation as a political weapon and a policy driver.
So, what's the takeaway as Kentucky Republicans look to unseat Gov. Andy Beshear in two years?
This election turned on education, and specifically, parental involvement in school policy. There's a huge school of thought out there that the taxpayers, parents, and the public at large -- the people who have children, elect school board members, and fund public schools -- should have no say in what goes on in the schools. The issues surrounding education are just too important to leave to the citizenry. Complain too loudly about what schools are doing, and the federal Department of Justice just might brand you as a domestic terrorist.
The key issue in Virginia appears to be critical race theory, a misguided way of thinking that twists actual history into something it's not, and tries to cast people alive today as being to blame for racial injustices of the past. But transgender bathroom issues also played a big role, with the fiasco in Loudoun County where a biological male who called himself a female and dressed as one sexually assaulted a girl in a bathroom, then was transferred to another school where he did it again.
Kentucky parents have spoken out about critical race theory and bathroom policies, but the main issue in this state where they've tried and failed to influence school decisions has to do with the Wuhan Chinese virus. Beshear tried to issue an executive order requiring mandatory wearing of masks in schools, but he was restrained by a court decision, and a legislative majority that didn't ratify his order. So he got his handpicked state board of education to issue the policy.
This is Beshear's McAuliffe "parents shouldn't make decisions about schools, these matters are too important and should be left to the elites" moment. Despite parents loudly and frequently saying they were in favor of voluntary masking and against a mask-wearing requirement, school boards opted to follow the state's directive, even though legislation passed earlier this year gave them an "out" and an alternative.
The political landscape can change drastically in two years, but this is something that needs to be remembered. "We wanted you to do one thing, but you did the opposite. You dismissed our desires and concerned as unimportant and misguided."
Another lesson? Don't bring in national liberals as your surrogates. Biden was a liability for McAuliffe, and his popularity is not likely to increase by 2023 as the country's economy continues to deteriorate. Virginia Democrats even tried to make Donald Trump a campaign issue, and it backfired miserably. Trump supported Youngkin, but made no appearances on his behalf. The 45th president maintains his popularity in Kentucky, and if he opts to run for another term in 2024, it's quite possible he'll come to Kentucky a year prior to campaign with the GOP nominee.
Beshear's supporters may also want to think twice about asking Randi Weingarten with the American Federation of Teachers to stump for him. Remember that in an effort to seek legitimacy, the "120 Wrong" group, which mostly existed as an online presence, affiliated itself with AFT a few months ago. Weingarten campaigned strongly for McAuliffe, to no avail. Given that "120 Wrong" was the group who encouraged Kentucky's teachers to stage an illegal sickout and travel to Frankfort to protest pension preservation efforts, they aren't exactly a persuasive voice in Kentucky politics. The Bluegrass State will want no part of Weingarten and her group's extremism.
Election results across the nation sounded an alarm for Democrats. They're now seeing catastrophe next year, and even some of the most bullish backers of Charles Booker's Senate race in Kentucky are acknowledging he's not likely to fare well. Some are even theorizing that his race is more about positioning himself to become a paid contributor on a liberal cable outlet like CNN or MSNBC than it is a legitimate attempt at winning back for the Democrats the seat Wendell Ford held for years.
Even the GOP losses were wins. No one expected the Republican challenger to come close to beating New Jersey's Phil Murphy, but he did, in a race that wasn't final until (surprise, surprise) late votes were found and tallied. The overall vote flip from Democrat to Republican in areas where Biden won easily has shaken the liberals. It shows in the urgency of fundraising messages Beshear has launched this week, fueled by the Virginia election.
Beshear's already in trouble in his re-election bid because of his heavy-handed Wuhan Chinese virus mandates and the beatings they've taken in federal and state courts, and for his administration's response to the unemployment system's problems. Kentucky continues to trend more conservatively every year, and if there's a national move to the right as shown in the Virginia election results, he'll be an underdog even as an incumbent.
Virginia has showed the way for Republicans to re-take a governor's office -- and even moreso, put on display how Democrats can lose the office through campaign missteps.
