When even friendly sources refer to your campaign's launch as "bumpy," "rough," and "rocky," you may have some issues.
Such is illustrative of the challenges Amy McGrath is going to face as she seeks to become the Democrat nominee for the United States Senate seat currently held by Mitch McConnell.
McGrath is going to have to walk a tightrope as she campaigns for the nomination. Does she run to the left to garner the support of and donations from the radical liberals on the national scene who are dominating the party's current direction? Or does she try to stay closer to the center to appeal to mainstream Kentucky Democrats who remain party members, but are increasingly feeling left behind by the national party's lurch to the left?
McGrath became a darling of national Democrats when she moved back to Kentucky after finishing her military career and challenged U.S. Rep. Andy Barr for Congress. But even in a "blue wave" election in Kentucky's second-most-liberal district, she couldn't unseat Barr.
She hung her campaign on her military service, which she probably thought would appeal to conservative "blue dog" Democrats, but voters saw through that when they heard excerpts of various comments she made about her beliefs, most of which were made at out-of-state fundraising events. She pronounced her support for abortion on demand and single-payer healthcare, her opposition to border security, and even famously declared herself to be farther left than just about anyone else in Kentucky.
Even the ads highlighting her service record turned wearisome. Her "89 combat missions" line became the butt of jokes and ridicule. She became a caricature and ended up losing an election many thought she'd win.
But Democrats love recycling, and she became the target of many seeking to recruit her to run for the right to challenge McConnell. (Yes, I know that McConnell has opposition in the Republican primary, and I will be supporting challenger Wesley Morgan, but it's a safe bet that McConnell will be renominated and will be on the ballot next fall).
Although she's the biggest name among the Democrats who have currently filed to run, it's not a foregone conclusion she'll be the nominee. No one is pining for Ashley Judd to move back to Kentucky to run, as she contemplated doing six years ago, but two well-known opponents may be waiting in the wings. Rocky Adkins, currently the Kentucky House of Representatives minority leader; and Matt Jones, a media personality best-known for his University of Kentucky-themed radio show and Web site; are said to be considering the race or are being encouraged to run.
Both Adkins and Jones would be formidable opponents for McGrath. Name recognition is one advantage for both of them. Despite all the national fawning over her, McGrath isn't all that well known outside the Lexington television market -- and mentioning her name in the 5th District often brings negative comments from those who couldn't vote for her and were sick of her omnipresent "89 combat missions" television ads.
Adkins is fresh off a second-place showing in the statewide gubernatorial primary, and many still feel like Democrats wasted their best chance for unseating Gov. Matt Bevin by nominating Andy Beshear instead. And Jones has long used the popularity of his sports broadcasting endeavor to pimp his political ambitions.
Of those three -- Adkins, Jones, and McGrath -- it's probably safe to say that Adkins has the best shot at ousting McConnell. The national money is going to come flowing in to whomever is running, and Adkins' rural background will resonate better with disaffected Democrats who still hold an advantage in voter registration numbers than will McGrath's uber-liberal views. Jones is banking on his radio popularity to work to his advantage should he run, but many people are lined up with stories about unpleasant personal interactions with him.
But if McGrath does end up with the nomination, she's never been up against anything like the McConnell political machine. Late in her congressional campaign, some legitimate questions arose about her service record. Barr's campaign didn't make an issue of it, but Barr's campaign is not McConnell's campaign. It might be time for me to copyright or trademark the term and hashtag #BackSeatPilot, I'm just saying.
After that bumpy start to her campaign, McGrath seems to have taken the advice everyone's giving Joe Biden, and has apparently gone into hiding. She did manage to make it to Harlan County to pander to the Blackjewel miners protesting their lack of a paycheck -- and kudos to her GPS for getting her to a place she'd probably never heard of before -- but no one's heard a peep out of her since then. Her campaign manger did make the news, however, for being blamed for Jones being booted from his "Hey Kentucky" Lexington television show.
McGrath's campaign is going to face challenges that no other possible candidates will. She's in a precarious position, having to decide whether to heed her liberal national backers and funders, or run a campaign that will appeal to the voters who will actually decide the contest. Is she up to the task?
