The enigma that is Rand Paul

(Note: This column originally appeared in some Kentucky newspapers the week of July 27.)

Rand Paul is somewhat of an enigma.

He’s a favorite of many conservatives, yet he espouses positions that sound like they’d be right at home in the platforms of Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.

He’s seemingly changed his stance on so many issues that it’s hard to determine where he stands on some of them, getting a reputation among some of his detractors that he thrives on telling differing audiences exactly what they want to hear.

He’s tried to establish a bit of independence from his father, former congressman and presidential candidate Ron Paul, yet he relies on his father’s network of supporters and donors while at the same time trying to appeal to voters who aren’t fans of his dad’s brand of politics.

As one of the first announced presidential candidates, he spent some time at the top of the polls, but he’s taken a back seat lately as candidates with broader appeal (Scott Walker), establishment support (Jeb Bush) or a penchant for bombastically speaking truths (Donald Trump) have entered the race.

And he’s always asserted that being a Kentucky senator is his first priority, even as he started plotting a run for president almost as soon as his improbable election to the Senate in 2010 was certified.

It’s that last bit that has some people wondering, since the announcement last week that Paul will be skipping Kentucky’s most storied political event, the Fancy Farm picnic so he can campaign for president in New Hampshire, just how committed he is to defending his Senate seat.

That Fancy Farm revelation has some political pundits and observers wondering just how sincere Paul’s commitment to his re-election bid really is. Despite its location in a remote corner of the Jackson Purchase area in far western Kentucky, miles away from any major media markets, Fancy Farm is the “can’t miss” shindig for Bluegrass State political figures. And with elections for statewide offices on the ballot this year, there will be considerable interest in this year’s festivities.

A few weeks ago, I mentioned Paul’s push to have Kentucky Republicans switch from a primary election to a caucus to allow him to get around Kentucky’s law that would only allow him to run for one office at a time. The change to a caucus is not a done deal. State GOP leaders will be deciding within the next few weeks whether or not to move forward with that plan, and there is some opposition to it. If the party does not approve a caucus, then Paul will definitely have to decide whether he wants to pursue his presidential ambitions, or try to remain Kentucky’s junior senator.

Some are beginning to wonder if Paul’s inattention to his re-election efforts might allow a well-funded and aggressive Democrat to sneak in and claim the seat. Although no Democrat has yet announced an intention to run yet, several names have been floated. The Democrats have always prized having the controls of state government more than federal offices, though, so it’s most likely that any of them who are thinking of running next year will wait until after November’s elections to announce.  And it’s further possible that the likely candidates are running for statewide office this year (Alison Lundergan Grimes and Adam Edelen being two of the most oft-mentioned.)

Mitch McConnell still has a tenuous hold on control of the state GOP, despite a number of well-publicized stumbles in the last few years. One of his staffers was recently named executive director of the Republican Party of Kentucky. McConnell and Paul have a well-documented relationship that has always been a bit contentious. McConnell supported Trey Grayson over Paul in the 2010 GOP senatorial primary, but came on board for the general election. McConnell has voiced his support for Paul’s presidential aspirations, but no doubt his loyalties lie with Bush or another establishment candidate, as their views mesh better with McConnell’s than do Paul’s. McConnell has also thrown his support behind the idea of a presidential caucus, but given the fickle nature of McConnell’s loyalties, that could change. (Don’t believe me about that? Ask former Gov. Ernie Fletcher about that subject. Or former U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning.) McConnell and Paul recently had a well-publicized spat over surveillance issues that got a lot of attention nationally.

The next few weeks will be critical to Paul’s presidential campaign. They may also prove critical to his senatorial re-election bid. He may be forced, via one reason or another, to choose between them. How it all turns out will be as interesting to Kentucky political observers as the Donald Trump phenomenon now is on the national scene.