Did Kentucky's version of AOC scare John Yarmuth out of his congressional seat?

U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth, the only Democrat from Kentucky in the state's federal delegation, surprised many earlier this week when he announced his intent to retire from Congress and not seek re-election next year.

Yarmuth, who hails from Louisville and is one of the most liberal members of Congress -- and that's saying something, given the increasing leftist-leaning radicalization of his party -- had become one of the most influential members of his party on Capitol Hill. Once a Republican and an ally of Mitch McConnell, somewhere down the line his political ideology changed and he turned into a Democrat farther to the left than most of the rest of his party's voters and officials in Kentucky. He was elected in 2006, defeating Republican incumbent Anne Meagher Northup, and has not been seriously challenged since. Given Jefferson County's liberal bent, his seat is still considered "safe" for Democrats even as the rest of the state trends more conservative Republican.

It's almost inconceivable to think that Yarmuth could be challenged from the left, but that's exactly what happened when state Rep. Attica Scott announced her intent to run for the congressional seat earlier in the year. There's hardly any difference in the platforms of Yarmuth and Scott, except that Scott introduces racial politics into the mix. She's been an outspoken race-baiter for years, especially after Breonna Taylor's death during a police operation last year, and even got herself arrested during one of the many Louisville protests that deteriorated into a near-riot. (The charge was eventually dropped).

Scott is about the closest thing Kentucky has to a "Squad" member. Her ideas fit right in with those held by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, Ayanna Pressley, and other like-minded radicals like Cori Bush in the House of Representatives.

Most political observers believed that Scott had no chance whatsoever of primarying Yarmuth, but one has to wonder why he decided to retire after indicating up until this point that he planned to stay in the race. He says he's in good health, but he's in his mid-70s and cited the common "spend more time with my family and doing things I want to do" reasons for dropping out of the race. Did he actually think Louisville voters would send him packing in favor of an even more extreme liberal?

While the news was surprising to many, it seemingly didn't come as a shock to at least one person. State Sen. Morgan McGarvey, who leads his party's minority in the Kentucky General Assembly's upper chamber, announced his candidacy for the seat within an hour of Yarmuth's disclosure, which came on social media rather than an in-person news conference. McGarvey had an introductory ad and a campaign Web site ready to go, which indicates he had advance knowledge of Yarmuth's decision and may even be the outgoing representative's choice for succeeding him. Since McGarvey was re-elected last year to a four-year term, he can run for Congress next year without having to give up his state Senate seat -- unlike Scott, who can't run for both Congress and the General Assembly and is having to give up her position in Frankfort to try to make it to Washington; or like former state Sen. Charles Booker, who gave up his position to unsuccessfully vie for the Democrats' nomination for U. S. Senate last year.

While it remains to be seen if the upcoming open seat will draw more contenders from Yarmuth's party, it also remains to be seen if Republicans can compete in the state's most liberal district. News of Yarmuth's retirement hadn't even had a chance to hit the evening broadcasts in Louisville before both Democrats and Republicans were speculating on a possible run by state Sen. Julia Raque Adams. Adams has positioned herself as a moderate-to-liberal Republican who is on good terms with some of the state's most outspoken liberals. She seems cut from the mold of Northup, who wasn't exactly a champion of conservatism during her political career and embarked on a McConnell-backed primary challenge to incumbent GOP Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007 after Yarmuth ousted her from Congress.

Kentucky's 3rd District is unique among the state's six. It consists of only part of one county, so there is not a large geographical territory for a candidate to cover. There's only one media market, so candidates don't have to saturate television stations in multiple cities with their ads. (Contrast that to the 4th District, which stretches along the Ohio River from Louisville to Ashland, and encompasses no less than four major media outposts -- Louisville, Cincinnati, Lexington, and Ashland-Huntington-Charleston). As previously noted, it's the state's most liberal district and even as Republicans make gains in voter registration across the rest of the state, Democrats still dominate Jefferson County. But there are still a decent amount of conservative Republicans in Louisville. Remember, it's where former Gov. Matt Bevin, one of the most conservative politicians ever to be elected in Kentucky, calls home.

The seat is not unwinnable for the GOP, but it will take a stronger candidate than Adams to claim a victory. Rank and file voters are growing increasingly dissatisfied with meek voices and squishy beliefs. They're looking for staunch conservatives who will stand up against liberal policies. If Adams does run and win the nomination, she won't excite her party's base.

Early indications are that unless someone else with a prominent voice comes out, McGarvey will likely be his party's nominee. He got the earliest start and appeals to a much broader swath of the electorate in his own party than does Scott. Even liberals in Louisville didn't like the air of lawlessness that took over the city last summer, the events of which Scott was a participant.

But one has to wonder about the timing of Yarmuth's announcement, months after Scott's entry into the race. Would he have delayed his decision if she hadn't joined the fray? Does he have concerns -- which, notably, aren't shared by the pundit class -- that she might actually have a chance to win? Did he want to get out early to give McGarvey a chance to get started on his campaign?

We'll see if Yarmuth expounds on his decision in the next few weeks. But for now, the race for what will likely be Kentucky's only open seat in a year in which Republicans are very likely to regain control of both chambers of Congress will be the one to watch in the Bluegrass State.