As could have been predicted, the announcement that John Yarmuth is not seeking re-election to Congress has touched off a lot of speculation and maneuvering as potential replacements mull a political campaign.
So far, a couple of state legislators have jumped into the fray. Rep. Attica Scott had already filed to challenge Yarmuth, and shortly after the retirement announcement went public, Sen. Morgan McGarvey made his intent to run known.
McGarvey must have known this was coming. He's already released a list of endorsements from several prominent Democrats. What's interesting about that is it includes some of Scott's colleagues in the House of Representatives. It also includes Sens. Reggie Thomas of Lexington and Gerald Neal of Louisville, both of whom share pigmentation with Scott, as does David James, president of Louisville's Metro Council and a former deputy attorney general under Greg Stumbo.
But although it seems that McGarvey knew in advance of Yarmuth's retirement, because he already had a fundraising mechanism in place, Yarmuth has stated that he has no plans to endorse a successor -- with one exception. His son, Aaron, publisher of the alternative Louisville Eccentric Observer (LEO) Weekly newspaper, has indicated he might jump in the race to succeed his father. The elder Yarmuth said he would support his son should he choose to run.
There may be other Democrats interested in running, and there are even a few who are encouraging former state Rep. Charles Booker to give up his destined-to-be-futile effort to unseat U. S. Sen. Rand Paul and go for the congressional seat instead.
A race between Booker and Scott would be fascinating, to say the least. Watching the two of them try to out-black the other could be downright hilarious, as both see themselves as champions of an oppressed minority.
And what of the Republicans? Although the 3rd District is extremely liberal, Republicans think they might have a shot at recapturing a seat the GOP hasn't held since 2007. There seems to be a concerted effort by the establishment to coax state Sen. Julie Raque Adams into the race. But unlike McGarvey, she'll have to choose between running to keep her state Senate seat or running for Congress, as her district is up for re-election next year.
An interesting twist to the potential GOP race came when Secretary of State Michael Adams said he would support Julie Adams, to whom he is not related, should she run. But if she doesn't run, he might consider the race himself. Adams may sense that he's in danger of being primaried if he runs for re-election for his current job in 2023, as he's unpopular with the base of the party for his capitulation to Gov. Andy Beshear on 2020 election changes due to the Wuhan Chinese virus, and the adoption of some of those procedures permanently.
Speaking of the base, the establishment within the Republican Party of Kentucky is already sending warning flares to the electorate, admonishing voters not to choose a conservative nominee. Tres Watson, former RPK communications director who's staked out a number of RINO positions in recent months, came right out and tweeted so. "The base needs to ask themselves: What's more important, ideological purity or 'Minority Leader Pelosi?' Nominate a candidate who can win KY-3, not one who's going (sic) headline CPAC."
The disdain for the grassroots is obvious. It must really pain the RPK leaders to have to issue statements of support for rank-and-file favorites like Rand Paul, Thomas Massie, Savannah Maddox, and others who aren't go-along-to-get-along types.
But the elephant in the room (pun intended) is the redistricting that must take place before next year's elections, based on the 2020 Census. With the filing deadline moved up even earlier in the General Assembly's session, it's unclear if the legislature will tackle the issue early once the session convenes in January, or if House and Senate leaders will ask Beshear to call a special session.
Since Jefferson County's population is larger than the ideal number of voters in each of Kentucky's six House districts, the county is split. Most of the western part of the county is in the 3rd District, while the extreme eastern part of the county is in the adjoining 4th District. This is Massie's seat and it extends all the way along the Ohio River to the Ashland area, encompassing the more urban northern Kentucky Cincinnati suburbs as well as a large swath of rural Kentucky.
One wrinkle the General Assembly's GOP majorities could throw into the process is to realign the district so the west end of Louisville is put into the 2nd District and the portion currently in the 4th folded into the 3rd. This wouldn't substantially impact the party's chances of keeping the 2nd District in the hands of Brett Guthrie, but it might bring an influx of Republicans into the 3rd.
Others are advocating for a more radical redistricting that would carve up Jefferson County and place portions of it in the 2nd, 4th, and 6th Districts, creating a new 3rd District that isn't limited to just the one county. It's not known if such a blatant attempt at gerrymandering would survive a court challenge, since ideal congressional districts are supposed to be as compact as possible while still meeting population guidelines to ensure districts of nearly equal size. But there are some maps floating around with the proposed new districts sketched out, and they would certainly dilute Louisville's power.
Even if only minor changes are made to the 3rd District's boundaries, there's still an interesting wrinkle to consider. Members of Congress are not required to live in the district they represent; only the state. That's what made it possible for Chris Perkins to succeed his father, Carl D. Perkins, even though the younger Perkins lived in Montgomery County and not Knott County. Should the General Assembly move Scott's west end home out of the 3rd and into the 2nd, she could still run in the 3rd.
None of Kentucky's incumbent congressmen are in danger of losing. Guthrie's being challenged from the right, and Massie from the left, but they're likely safe in their primary battles. No credible opponent for Andy Barr has come out yet. And Hal Rogers and (unfortunately) Jamie Comer are entrenched in their seats. And no real drama was expected in the Yarmuth vs. Scott race, until Yarmuth's departure changed it all.
In both parties' primaries, it will be the race to watch, even more so than a potential Senate primary, because as of now it doesn't look like any viable Democrat is going to challenge Booker. The party seems content to give up any chance of defeating Paul, because Booker has no shot. His base doesn't extend beyond the radicals on the left, who are an obvious minority in Kentucky.
The big draw next year is the local ballot. New county and city leaders will be chosen, and those elections traditionally draw more interest and participation than do gubernatorial and presidential elections in Kentucky. But some in the Louisville media are already speculating that the battle to replace Yarmuth will overshadow that city's mayoral race.
Even for those of us not living in Jefferson County or those not in the Louisville media market, the 3rd District race is going to be interesting. Will Scott continue to use race as a wedge issue? Has McGarvey already frozen out mainstream opposition with his early announcement? Will a viable Republican run? Even as attention turns to the state elections in 2023 and the presidential race the following year, the Louisville race is going to draw statewide observers.
