Kentucky conservatives got a mixed outcome from Tuesday's elections. They dominated every statewide race except the one at the top that counts the most, and even now that race is too close to call.
If things hold up, presumptive Gov. Andy Beshear will be a Democrat on an island of Republicans in Frankfort. Every other constitutional office and both houses of the General Assembly will be in the hands of his opposition, which hopefully will serve as a major buffer against the damage he will do this state.
It's frustrating to see the commonwealth take a step backwards, given that it will take at least 30 years of uninterrupted Republican rule to undo all the damage the Democrats have done to the state during their decades in power. Beshear will be able to reverse much of what Matt Bevin did via executive order, assuming the legislature or new Attorney General Daniel Cameron don't challenge him. Do these Republicans have the gumption to do the right thing, or will they -- like the GOP is prone to do -- go along to get along? Will they give Beshear a honeymoon or will they stand on their principles?
Of course, Beshear actually has to be sworn into office first. With a statewide margin of around 5,000 votes, and more than a few questions about irregularities, Bevin is wisely pursuing a recanvass of the votes. This will involve checking totals from voting machines and adding them up again to ensure the total is as originally reported. I saw one comment that if only two voters in each Kentucky voting precinct had voted for Bevin instead of Beshear, Bevin would have been re-elected.
Beyond a recanvass, Kentucky's law for requesting a recount in a state election is a bit of an oddity. If this was a local election, then a candidate requesting a recount would simply ask for one with the local board of elections and the court system. It's a formal process, paid for by the requestor, that involves extensive examination of the voting machines to make sure votes were accurately recorded. But for state elections, such as the gubernatorial race, the requestor has to make that request of the General Assembly via contesting the election. The House and Senate assemble a committee that guides the process, and then the legislature makes the decision. A tight legislative race went through this process last year until the petitioner withdrew the request. Should a 5,000-vote margin hold up through the process, there can be little doubt that the legislature would declare Beshear the winner. But if things get dicey, it's possible that the Republican legislature could choose the Republican incumbent as the winner. That would most certainly trigger a court case that could leave the outcome undecided as next year's biennial budget session gets underway.
But those are far-fetched scenarios. The likelihood is that Andy Beshear is, indeed, going to be the governor when December rolls into January.
So, what happens then? Beshear is a minority of one going up against the rest of Frankfort. How much of his agenda and his budget will the Republican-controlled House and Senate be willing to give him? Will the legislature proceed on its own priorities and override any Beshear vetoes? How many victories do they allow the new governor to have as he, in essence, immediately starts campaigning for re-election in four years?
The wild cards in the deck are Cameron and Auditor Mike Harmon. Will Cameron, as attorney general, do to Beshear what Beshear did to Bevin? Looking back to 2003-07, will Cameron and Harmon play the roles of Greg Stumbo and Crit Luallen with Beshear as Ernie Fletcher? And how much posturing will take place among officeholders Cameron, Harmon, Ryan Quarles, Michael Adams, and Allison Ball, with the GOP gubernatorial nomination for 2023 now wide-open?
The biggest winners in the whole equation may be the taxpayers of Kentucky. Once the General Assembly started holding annual sessions, one of the greatest lines concerning Bluegrass State politics became void. There used to be an old joke about how the state would be better off if the legislature met for two days every 60 years instead of 60 days every two years. With a Democrat in the Governor's Office and Republicans controlling a supermajority in both houses of the legislature, gridlock may rule the day. And if nothing's getting passed, no one's taxes are being increased and no one's freedoms are being taken away. That's a benefit for all of us.
It's an interesting time in Kentucky government. None of us have ever seen this particular situation before. It's likely to be a wild ride, so to quote NASCAR announcer and former crew chief Larry MacReynolds, "reach up and pull those belts tight one more time."
