Sen. Mitch McConnell was favored to win re-election this year, but his margin of victory defied predictions and expectations. Polling consistently showed him with a decent advantage over challenger Amy McGrath, but no one could have foreseen what turned into a 20-point victory over a candidate who had high name recognition and plenty of campaign cash to throw into her candidacy.
So now that McConnell is going back to Washington, seemingly once again as Senate majority leader, what's next for the man who's credited for bringing back the Kentucky Republican Party from its moribund state in the 1970s and early 80s and propelling it to its position of dominance in Bluegrass politics?
McConnell is 78 years old; he'll turn 79 in February as the new congressional session is getting underway. It's widely believed that this is his last term and that he will not seek re-election in 2026, when he'll be 84. Conventional political wisdom is that his protege, Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, is being groomed to take his place.
But political speculation is always a fun game to play, so let's engage in a little of it where Kentucky's senior senator is concerned.
In weeks leading up to the election, McConnell's health came into question. His hands appeared badly bruised in some photos, and some said they could tell he was wearing makeup at some of his public appearances and his face appeared to look different. It prompted lots of wondering if perhaps he hadn't suffered a fall, and others theorized that he's having heart issues.
When Congress goes back into session, Gov. Andy Beshear will be entering the second year of his four-year term. Beshear will be up for re-election in 2023, at which time McConnell will have passed the 80 mark.
If something happens to McConnell between now and then, Beshear will get to choose his successor. Who might get the nod? It wouldn't be surprising if Beshear picks his father, former Gov. Steve Beshear, who ran unsuccessfully against McConnell in 1996 and was unable to deny him a third term.
But what might occur if McConnell is still kicking when 2023 rolls around? That's where the fun part of the speculation begins.
McConnell has long been the elephant in the room (pun intended) in Republican politics in Kentucky. He backed U.S. Rep. Ernie Fletcher for governor in 2003, then cut Fletcher's legs out from under him when then-Attorney General Greg Stumbo came after him. He dried up fellow Sen. Jim Bunning's fundraising for the 2010 senatorial election, forcing Bunning to decide not to run for re-election. (That gambit didn't pay off as planned, as Rand Paul defeated McConnell's chosen candidate, Trey Grayson, in the GOP primary.) Some are convinced he undermined Gov. Matt Bevin's re-election bid last year and tacitly supported Beshear because he was still angry that Bevin had dared to challenge him in the 2014 Senate primary. And he's also believed to have backed both Cameron and Secretary of State Michael Adams against primary foes last year, when the front-runners had come oh-so-close to ousting better-known and better-funded Democrats in 2015.
It's a given that there will be a crowded field in Republican ranks for the 2023 gubernatorial nomination. Treasurer Mike Harmon, Agriculture Secretary Ryan Quarles, and Treasurer Allison Ball are all logical and rumored candidates, as they were re-elected last year and are term-limited in their current positions. Congressman Jamie Comer is also an oft-rumored candidate, and conservative favorite state Rep. Savannah Maddox is getting all sorts of encouragement to run due to her outspoken stands against Gov. Beshear's executive orders in dealing with the Wuhan Chinese virus. Adams and Cameron are in their first terms, and are also mentioned at times as possible candidates, but they are less likely to run -- Cameron because he's seen as McConnell's eventual successor, and Adams because he forged a partnership with Beshear on election changes this year that have angered a number of Republicans.
McConnell might not make a public endorsement in the gubernatorial primary, but if he has a preferred candidate, his influence will be known and felt. And it wouldn't be surprising if McConnell makes a deal with a gubernatorial candidate: If you will pledge to appoint Daniel Cameron to the Senate, I will go all-in on your campaign and then resign after you are elected. Should McConnell be able to extract such a promise from one of the candidates, that's who he's likely to support.
McConnell claims to relish being the Senate majority leader, but he may not enjoy that job as much in the future as he has in the past. For at least two years, he's still going to have to deal with Nancy Pelosi as House speaker. Plus, it's looking increasingly likely that the presidency will be held by a Democrat, so he won't be able to tout judicial appointments as an accomplishment. He'll be back to where he was during the Barack Obama presidency, decrying his lack of ability to get anything done because he's only one-half of one-third of the government.
It's amazing that he was able to win re-election the way he did, given that he's disliked equally by liberal Democrats and by the conservative wing of the GOP. Brad Barron, a Libertarian, made a gallant effort to siphon conservative votes away from McConnell, but was unsuccessful in affecting the outcome. And liberals who continue to insist that the Democrats would have stood a better chance of beating McConnell with state Rep. Charles Booker instead of McGrath again show they don't understand just how this state is skewing to the right and away from the radical liberalism Booker represents. "Cocaine Mitch" beat the fighter pilot by 20 points. His margin against Booker would have been at least 25 points.
If McConnell's health holds up, how he inserts himself into the 2023 gubernatorial race will definitely be worth watching. And if the GOP wrests the governorship away from Beshear, his future will certainly be in play.
