And they're off: Harmon's entry into 2023 gubernatorial race is just the beginning

The announcement that Mike Harmon plans to run for Kentucky governor in 2023 wasn't really a surprise, but the timing caught most Bluegrass political observers off-guard.

Harmon, who's in his second term as state auditor and cannot run again due to Kentucky's term limits on statewide offices, had been widely mentioned as a potential gubernatorial candidate. But no one anticipated him being the first to announce his candidacy, which was done via a press release instead of a live event.

The low-key nature of Harmon's declaration is in keeping with his performance as auditor. He hasn't been a headline-grabber. He's brought a quiet, methodical approach to his duties, seizing on a slogan of "Follow the Data" as his office goes about its mandated functions.

As of this writing, his early announcement hasn't moved any of the other possible or rumored candidates to publicly say they're in the running for the Republican nomination to try to unseat Andy Beshear in two years. Whether his official announcement will be of any benefit to him, or possibly ward off other potential challengers, remains to be seen. He's already picked up some early public support from some voters who probably would have looked at other alternatives if he wasn't running.

The most frequently mentioned possible candidates include former Gov. Matt Bevin, current Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles, Congressman Jamie Comer, and Kelly Knight Craft, former U.S. ambassador to Canada.

There are a number of other potential candidates, including Treasurer Allison Ball, who, like Harmon and Quarles, is term-limited from seeking re-election. Even Congressman Andy Barr, who once served as an aide to former Gov. Ernie Fletcher, has been mentioned in some news stories as considering joining the race. Somerset Mayor Alan Keck has expressed some interest in running. And without giving away any inside information, it can be accurately stated that state Rep. Savannah Maddox has heard the voices encouraging her to run.

Although we don't know exactly who all will be running for the GOP nomination in 2023, save for Harmon, it can safely be predicted that the ballot will be crowded and the race will be expensive. There's no clear front-runner among speculative candidates, although press coverage would give one the impression that Quarles occupies that spot.

This much is certain: Beshear is deeply unpopular among Kentucky Republicans for the way he's handled the Wuhan Chinese virus and a number of other related and unrelated issues. But how will that unpopularity affect the GOP electorate? There's a clear divide among establishment Republicans (the RINOs) and the conservative grassroots (the tea party and MAGA groups.)

Of the possible candidates, Craft would definitely be an establishment favorite. Many consider Quarles to fit in that category as well. Some place Comer in that group, too, and to a lesser extent, Barr.

On the conservative side? Bevin, Maddox, and Ball are definitely on that team.

As for Harmon (who was introduced as "Mark Harmon," the NCIS actor, by President Trump at the Rupp Arena 2019 election eve rally), it's hard to tell where he belongs. He's more or less avoided a lot of ideological statements or acts during his tenure as auditor. He certainly hasn't been as outspoken in his opposition to Beshear policies and orders as either Quarles or Ball.

The Kentucky GOP electorate is angry. They're upset with Beshear and his business- and job-killing restrictions. They're unhappy with the way the Republican establishment, led by the likes of Mitch McConnell and Liz Cheney, have turned on Trump. Some of that anger will play out at the polls next year, when all of the state representatives and half of the state senate seats are up for election. Expect a number of incumbent Republicans to be primaried, especially if their politics have drifted to the left over the years. A perfect example is Sen. Alice Forgy Kerr, who's drawn a primary challenge from Lexington business owner and conservative activist Andrew Cooperrider.

Will establishment support carry a Quarles or a Craft to victory? Would a perception as McConnell's choice be a blessing or a curse? In past years, it was an asset. Now, not so much. A scant few years ago, it would have been unthinkable for a county party committee to issue a formal censure of the party's top statewide elected official with a position of national prominence. McConnell is said to be smarting over the defiance that was shown by several county GOP organizations. His support -- tacit or vocal -- of one of the Republican candidates might be the kiss of death for their chances.

Harmon, and the other candidates who come out for the race, will be running under a new set of rules. No longer will primary voters have to choose slates of candidates for governor and lieutenant governor. Gubernatorial candidates will run solo in the primary, and the winner will choose their running mate after being nominated and before the general election.

It's a rule Dan Mongiardo probably wishes had been in place for the 2011 election. Mongiardo was elected lieutenant governor on a slate with Steve Beshear in 2007, but it was widely known that Mongiardo was eyeing the 2010 Senate race for a rematch with Jim Bunning. Beshear wanted to get an early start on fundraising for his re-election campaign, so he had to have a slate in place and he had no way of knowing if Mongiardo would still be lieutenant governor, or if he would be in the U.S. Senate, so he dropped Mongiardo from the ticket in favor of Jerry Abramson.

So, Harmon's formal filing makes him the first candidate to be able to raise funds for the 2023 campaign. It really hasn't garnered him a lot of "earned media" press coverage other than for his announcement. It's also gotten him some proclamations of support from some voters, but no early endorsements to speak of.

Harmon's a qualified candidate, and has done a credible job as auditor, but is he the person best suited to carry the fight to Andy Beshear in two years? Will he inspire the passion that some other candidates will? Can he stay in the race until May 2023, or as the field grows, will he find support lagging and have to pull out and endorse someone else?

We all expected a drama-filled Republican primary race, but this wasn't the first act we anticipated at all.