GOP caucus: The guest of honor will miss the party

After the Republican Party of Kentucky announced its plan to hold a presidential nominating caucus, rather than a primary, to enable U.S. Sen. Rand Paul to run for re-election and for the presidency at the same time, there was always an undercurrent of thought that Paul wouldn’t even be in the running by the time his made-to-order caucus took place.

I hope those who predicted that outcome placed winning bets on the Super Bowl, because they were right on the money. Two days after the Iowa caucuses, Paul dropped out of the presidential race.

That leaves Kentucky Republicans with a Saturday, March 5 presidential caucus that was designed to benefit only one person who now won’t benefit from it at all. Paul’s name will still be on the caucus ballot, but a vote for him will be wasted.

The odds were good that Paul wouldn’t have won the Kentucky caucus. Although he touts his attendance record as proof that he’s working for Kentucky in the Senate, there are a lot of people in both parties who think Paul has furthered his own personal political ambitions during his Senate term and hasn’t acted in Kentucky’s best interests. At the time of this writing, no polling has been released about Republican voters’ preferences, but it’s safe to say that Paul wouldn’t be leading if polls had been taken. Excitement for Donald Trump in Kentucky seems to be on par with the rest of the country, and both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio seem to have generated enthusiastic followers in the Bluegrass State as well.

So, Paul’s departure from the race leaves Kentucky Republicans with a caucus that the party leadership never really supported, but approved as a favor to him. How do they feel now? Will they be inclined to grant him any more favors?

Some Republicans are still promoting the caucus as a good thing, saying it will make Kentucky relevant in the nominating process since the nominee has traditionally been all but chosen by the time of the normal May primary. But turnout for the Saturday caucus will likely be abysmal. In fact, not all counties are hosting a caucus. Republicans in nine of Kentucky’s counties will have to travel to another county to cast a vote, and there’s a rather egregious example of that in this region.

Owsley County chose not to have a caucus. Republicans there who wish to participate will have to travel to Lee County to vote. It’s only 11 miles from Booneville to Beattyville, but it will still be an inconvenience for Owsley residents who live in the far reaches of the county to drive to Beattyville. But the worst example is Estill County. Estill residents will have to travel the 27 long, torturous miles to McKee across a narrow, winding and hilly road to vote. Instead of combining with Madison or Powell counties, which are much closer and easier to access, Estill County instead will be caucusing with Jackson County. That makes little sense.

Absentee ballots are also an option, but the realistic view is that unless Republicans, especially those in counties not holding caucuses, are very fired up about a certain candidate, they’ll choose not to participate. The low turnout will be reminiscent of Kentucky’s 1988 participation in the “Super Tuesday” presidential primary, and the 2016 caucus will go down in history as a failed experiment that was of no help to the one person it was designed to benefit.

Paul’s campaign agreed to pay most of the costs of the caucuses, with candidate filing fees expected to take up the slack. Will he hold up his end of the bargain, or will the RPK be stuck with the bills? As this is written, no prominent Kentucky Republicans or party leaders have commented on the status of the caucus or on Paul’s withdrawal from the presidential race.

Some Republicans were concerned that Paul’s faltering presidential bid would negatively affect his Senate re-election campaign. Paul got a high-profile Democratic opponent last week in Lexington Mayor Jim Gray. Paul’s exit from the presidential race before the Kentucky caucus makes one wonder if perhaps his camp doesn’t regard Gray as more of a threat than they let on.

To date, Paul has not endorsed a candidate. Rick Santorum, who finished second to Mitt Romney in 2012 but failed to gain traction this time around, also withdrew from the race last week and endorsed Rubio. If Paul does endorse an ex-rival, we’ll have to see if that provides a bump for that candidate in Kentucky.

After the caucus was created at the insistence of Kentucky’s junior senator, I dubbed it the “GOPaulcus.” Now, the guest of honor at that party won’t even be in attendance. Bluegrass Republicans have to be a little embarrassed about that. And if some of them are angry, that’s justifiable, too.