Can the Trump train be derailed?

(Note -- this was written and submitted to newspapers in my area in mid-January, well before the Iowa caucuses.)

Several months ago, I made a couple of political predictions.

First was that the novelty of Donald Trump as a Republican presidential candidate would fade, and he would fall from contention for the nomination as other candidates ramped up their campaigns.

Second was that as usual, the Republican establishment’s favored candidate – in this case, then-perceived frontrunner Jeb Bush – would end up with the nomination instead of a conservative or outsider candidate.

It looks as if I could be wrong on both counts. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that Bush’s candidacy is washed up and going nowhere. And it’s looking entirely possible that Trump could end up winning the nomination.

That latter fact has the GOP establishment frightened to death. They keep saying Trump is unelectable in a general election matchup against Hillary Clinton, but that’s just a front. Their real fear is that they are losing influence over the party, its members and the selection process for candidates.

That’s why the establishment has also turned its guns on Ted Cruz, who has emerged as Trump’s stiffest competition. Seeing that Bush’s fortunes are ebbing, the party’s elites are starting to throw their support to Marco Rubio. At one time a conservative favorite alongside Cruz, Rubio’s stands have alienated many in the party’s base as he’s seemingly started to move to the left on some issues, particularly immigration. Rubio has disappointed many who had high hopes for him when he, Cruz, Utah’s Mike Lee and Kentucky’s Rand Paul went to the Senate as conservative voices to stand against the liberals in both parties.

No matter what outrageous comment Trump may make, and no matter what barbs his rivals throw his way, he seems to be unscathed. In recent weeks Trump has taken flak over his comments on Muslims, but his message continues to resonate with an American public that sees the rise of ISIS and an increase in Islamic terrorism on foreign soil and in the United States and increasingly feels the federal government is not doing enough to stop it. They also see the evidence that the economy isn’t as rosy as President Barack Obama makes it out to be, and they worry about their jobs. They see ineffective politicians in both parties and want someone new to deal with the myriad of problems this country faces.

After last week’s Republican debate in South Carolina, many political observers noted that they think the race is down to three candidates – Trump, Cruz and Rubio. Of course, this is before the first vote is cast in an election or a caucus. Rubio will have the establishment’s support, while Trump and Cruz will split the vote among those who don’t fall in line with what the party’s elders dictate. Cruz will dominate among constitutional conservatives, while Trump will continue to appeal to those who want a complete outsider. If Trump finally does flame out or commit political suicide – and so far, he seems invulnerable to any damage, even the self-inflicted kind – what will become of his supporters? Will they migrate to Cruz, or will they flock to another outsider such as Carly Fiorina or Dr. Ben Carson, assuming they’ll still be in the race?

And what of the Democrats? Bernie Sanders is proving to be a pest that Hillary Clinton can’t get rid of, like a fly that keeps buzzing around her head. Hillary will never be confused with a conservative, but she’s been campaigning to the right of Sanders lately on a number of issues. She’s having to walk a fine line between keeping her liberal constituency happy while at the same time distancing herself from the impossible pie-in-the-sky proposals Sanders makes.

There’s also rich irony in last week’s announcement that Moveon.org has endorsed Sanders over Hillary. Remember that this is the same group that was formed to support her husband during his impeachment proceedings. That comes as Hillary is starting to get more criticism from those who claim she’s hypocritical by campaigning on so-called women’s issues while at the same time criticizing those who accused her husband of untoward sexual advances and acts.

Also, who knows what will come of the ongoing investigation into her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state? A growing number of legal scholars think she will be prosecuted – and some predict a showdown between the FBI, which will push for criminal charges to be filed, and Attorney General Loretta Lynch, who will push back against that effort. An unflattering movie about her involvement in the Benghazi fiasco won’t help matters for her.

What can the Democrats do if her candidacy collapses? What if she does come under indictment for the email scandal? Sanders generates the same feelings among the Democratic establishment as Trump does for the GOP. The best alternate candidate, Vice President Joe Biden, opted out of a run for the presidency, but he continues to publicly second-guess that decision. Might he suddenly emerge as his party’s savior?

The conventions are still months away. Lots can happen. And, as noted earlier, the first vote has not yet been cast. And with the frontrunners (Trump and Hillary) having their own unique vulnerabilities, the political landscape can change dramatically in a matter of minutes. Still, Hillary has shown herself to be coated in Teflon despite lots of faults, and so far Trump hasn’t been knocked off his game either by himself or by one of his opponents.

Buckle up, political junkies. The ride’s about to get interesting.