It was a close call, but U.S. Sen. Rand Paul
convinced Kentucky’s Republican leadership to approve the party’s change from a
primary election to a caucus – which I’ve dubbed the GOPaulcus – to select the
state’s choice for a presidential nominee in 2016.
Despite an endorsement from the state’s top
Republican dog, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the vote wasn’t a done deal. In
fact, the decision was jeopardized the week prior to the party vote when news
broke that Paul had been less than forthcoming when he said he’d already given
the party a significant sum of money to be used to pay for the GOPaulcus.
The decision required a three-fourths vote of the
party’s leaders, and the GOPaulcus was approved by the slimmest of percentages,
and then only after a provision was inserted into the proposal that requires
Paul to pay the up-front share of the costs by a certain date, or the party
will revert to a primary election.
This move ostensibly allows Paul to compete for
both the presidential nomination and re-election to the Senate, bypassing a
state law that allows a candidate to run for only one office at a time. Since
the presidential delegate competition won’t be on the ballot with the Senate
primary, it’s a legal move. But is it practical?
When Paul first raised the idea of the GOPaulcus,
he said he thought he had about a one in six (17 percent) chance of winning the
presidential nomination. Lately, though, his stock has tanked, and he recently
lowered his self-estimated odds of winning to one in 10. His popularity seems
to have peaked, and it’s not likely to rise again to the level it was when he
was one of just a few announced candidates. As the field has become more
crowded, his support has waned.
The likelihood is that by the time the March
GOPaulcus rolls around, Paul will either be a total non-factor in the race or
he will have withdrawn from it. As the establishment wing of the party firms up
its support of Jeb Bush; as the popularity of anti-establishment candidates such
as Ted Cruz and Scott Walker continues to rise; and if the Donald Trump
phenomenon doesn’t flame out, it’s probable that Paul will be out of
contention. And there’s no guarantee that he can engineer a revival in his
adopted home state of Kentucky. A number of Bluegrass Republicans don’t support
him, and his insistence of being able to run for re-election to the Senate as a
safety net has alienated more than a few since Kentucky law doesn’t allow that
the way other states do. Delegates are to be apportioned proportionally
according to the results of the GOPaulcus, and it won’t be a winner-take-all
contest. Even if Paul wins by a narrow margin, he’ll still have to share
delegates with his nearest competitors.
There’s a growing sentiment that Paul should abandon
his presidential bid and concentrate on being re-elected to the Senate. That
would be a far less difficult path for him. Kentucky will likely vote
overwhelmingly for the Republican nominee, whomever it ends up being. Hillary
Clinton doesn’t enjoy the Arkansas folksy manner her husband did in 1992 and
1996. Bernie Sanders will find little audience for his extreme views in the
Bluegrass State. So it looks like the Republican candidate will have long
coattails, and Paul should be able to take advantage of them – unless he gets
careless and his presidential ambitions divert his focus from the Senate
re-election campaign.
I questioned the particulars of the GOPaulcus
process from the beginning. It currently appears as if there will only be a
six-hour window for voting, as opposed to the 12 hours polls are open in an
election. Most rural counties will have only one GOPaulcus location, as opposed
to several voting precincts countywide. These factors will likely prove to be a
deterrent to participation. The prediction here is that after this one-time
experiment to appease Paul and legally circumvent the candidacy restrictions,
the state GOP executive committee will be more than happy to return to a
primary election to choose a presidential nominee for 2020 and beyond.
Parties are free to choose their nominees for
office in pretty much any manner they choose. This one time, at least, Kentucky
Republicans have chosen to do what some other states do and use a caucus. So,
it was funny to hear Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes criticizing the
decision. Since she’s a Democrat, it’s really none of her business how
Republicans select candidates. And while I tend to agree with some of her
statements, her opinions are irrelevant. A friend floated the theory that she’s
unhappy that the Republican presidential candidates will be paying their filing
fees to the state party rather than to her office, since the secretary of
state’s office has nothing to do with a party caucus.
But as I said before, it’s all a moot point. Rand
Paul is not going to be the Republican presidential nominee. There won’t be any
controversies about him possibly being on the November general election ballot
for both president and senator. It’s just not going to happen.
